Wednesday onslaught
- Politicians
- New polling data shows the Senate race tightening. Interesting to me was that most of the Green Senate voters appear to fall into the "undecided" pool when asked their vote in a two-way race (although it's hard to imagine them breaking for Santorum). Casey has yet to run state-wide TV ads, which could change the margins, and the first Senate debate is still three weeks off. Over on the gubernatorial side, it continues to look like a Rendell romp.
- An Inquirer article looks at the GOP strategy of running black candidates in swing states to try to woo black voters for the longer haul. The Swann campaign is examined in that light.
- Michael Nutter made a statement in opposition to laxer rules on use of prison inmates for testing of new drugs. History would certainly indicate that great caution must be used in considering such a move!
- Albert provides a report of the first NN mayoral forum, in which Saidel and Nutter addressed a packed house. He was a bit frustrated that nobody really had a compelling message.
- New polling data shows the Senate race tightening. Interesting to me was that most of the Green Senate voters appear to fall into the "undecided" pool when asked their vote in a two-way race (although it's hard to imagine them breaking for Santorum). Casey has yet to run state-wide TV ads, which could change the margins, and the first Senate debate is still three weeks off. Over on the gubernatorial side, it continues to look like a Rendell romp.
- Other
- A group of voting activists have brought a lawsuit to block use of electronic voting machines in Pennsylvania unless they generate an auditable paper trail. Their arguments are based on evidence of past malfunction as well as studies showing how easily the electronic results can be manipulated.
- New Jersey state investigators have concluded that administrators did artificially inflate test scores in the Camden school system last year -- or at least that "adult interference" happened to manipulate outcomes. Not pretty.
- Philadelphia's technology czar, Diana Neff, is leaving the city for a top job at a company that she helped hook up with city business. Haven't I heard this tune before? Weren't the rules tightened?
- The Daily News profiles a private citizen whose determination may have made the National Parks Service back down on their planned fence for Independence Hall.
- A Philadelphia Weekly piece looks at one of the casino legislation amendments under discussion, which would inform gamblers of their losses on a regular basis, to help them stop before getting in trouble.
- A second PW story looks at recent rulings that have limited the group of people with standing to contest a Zoning Board decision. This would mean that only immediate neighbors and others suffering direct harm could bring a complaint, blocking groups like civic associations and issue alliances from bringing challenges on behalf of a larger group of taxpayers or more distant neighbors. The law at issue was actually written by the billboard industry...
- A DN editorial calls on the Schools Commission to approve Vallas' contract extension, pointing out that we're lucky to have had one person and one vision this long.
- Another DN opinion piece gives a personal reflection on how we need to go about stopping violence in our communities.
- Inga Saffron has been taking a look at what is and isn't getting built around town, as a guage of how long the housing gush can continue.
- A group of voting activists have brought a lawsuit to block use of electronic voting machines in Pennsylvania unless they generate an auditable paper trail. Their arguments are based on evidence of past malfunction as well as studies showing how easily the electronic results can be manipulated.
posted by ACM at 2:44 PM
3 Comments:
I expect Casey to come away with about a 6 pt win.
If you look at the numbers for both
Santorum and Casey, except for the one Q-Poll showing Casey up 19 (which may have been an outlier), their percents have just bounced around within the MOE (+/-3 or 4). Casey's been between
48-52 and Santorum 38-42.
I just don't trust this early polling -- I think it says much more about disenchantment with Santorum than it does about enthusiasm for Casey, and there are two main risks: (1) that the debates show such a gulf between their rhetorical skills that people drift back toward Santorum (and related things having to do with the relative effects of their ads once we get to fall), and (2) that the Casey voters will be unenthused enough to not turn out on election day, either because they disagree with Casey on too many things and/or because they think he's got it in the bag without them.
Santorum's a closer. I won't relax about this race until the day after Election Day.
Repultabe polls, of which Quinnipiac is one, are based on fixed mathematical laws and they can be trusted to measure accurately with the MOE the sentiment of the moment.
I'm not worried about Casey and Santorum on stage together either. I'll say right now Santorum will come off as arrogant and phony and Casey will come off as the guy you'd love to have for a next door neighbor. You are going to be very surprised at how well Casey will do.
He might not be exactly your cup of tea, but to the vast majority of voters he'll be just the antidote to St Rick.
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