Friday, January 27, 2006

All that glitters...

Albert notes some recent Zogby polling data that, among other things, pokes holes in the presumed power of Robert Casey's name recognition. He argues that this gives impetus to those who have been afraid to vote their principles in the primary (but appears not to give much credence to the data that Casey can pull in Republican voters too)... Other interesting bits there too.


Anonymous albert said...

yes, his support with conservatives is up a tick, according to the poll, 1.1%, but i felt that was well within any margin of error of any poll and not worth mentioning.

in addition, Casey's numbers drop in other categories as well:

Casy's support among 18-24 year olds drops from 63% to 40%, with Protestants, it drops from 47.3% to 30%, with liberals, from 95.4% to 68%, with moderates, from 64% to 53%, but Casey actually gains support from conservates, going from 3.9% to 5%, a non-significant, but interesting finding.

4:51 PM  
Blogger DanielUA said...

I don't see how this says anything about name recognition being a problem. I think it says name recognition is the biggest problem. Am I misreading something here?

3:01 PM  
Blogger Chris said...

I think Casey will ultimately win the nomination, but I think Pennacchio could be a viable Senate candidate once Specter's term is done. Toomey v Pennacchio or Hoeffel? Seems like a no-brainer.

12:50 AM  
Blogger ACM said...

Dan -- I guess that it says that if the candidates' positions are really clarified for voters, the need for name recognition (at the level of Casey's pre-existing) falls away. however, it doesn't tell us whether such information can be gotten out there, and/or whether the lesser-known guys (e.g., Pennacchio and Sandals) can make up the gap in name/position recognition in time.

also, having now looked at the questions, I see that there are some gaps and biases -- i.e., there are things on which Santorum and Casey differ (workplace rights, say) or about which Casey's position is not well known (e.g., gay marriage) that weren't included, and other important PA issues (such as guns) that might have leaned people toward Casey over Pennacchio or Sandals are also notably absent. so I'm not at all sure we're getting a full picture here.

fp -- I think either progressive candidate could be "viable" in the current or next election. however, Casey's having cleared the field of other insiders gives these guys a chance now that they wouldn't have when Hoeffel or other better-known folks (with experience as well as a liberal outlook) come back into the picture.

2:16 PM  

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